Tag Archives: pandemic

Open Mouth Operations: Trump’s Attempt at Sarcasm

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“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

Jan 22, 2020

“We only have five people. Hopefully, everything’s going to be great. They have somewhat of a problem, but hopefully, it’s all going to be great.”

Jan 20, 2020

“My administration will take all necessary steps to safeguard our citizens from this threat.”

Feb 4, 2020

“Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away. I hope that’s true. But we’re doing great in our country.”

Feb 10, 2020

“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

Feb 24, 2020

“When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

Feb 26, 2020

“They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over. … And this is their new hoax.”

Feb 28, 2020

“Gallup just gave us the highest rating ever for the way we are handling the CoronaVirus situation.”

Mar 5, 2020

“Anybody that wants a test can get a test. That’s what the bottom line is.”

Mar 6, 2020

“This was unexpected. … And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

Marc 10, 2020

“My administration is recommending that all Americans, including the young and healthy, work to engage in schooling from home when possible. Avoid gathering in groups of more than 10 people. Avoid discretionary travel. And avoid eating and drinking at bars, restaurants and public food courts. If everyone makes … these critical changes and sacrifices now, we will rally together as one nation and we will defeat the virus. And we’re going to have a big celebration all together. With several weeks of focused action, we can turn the corner and turn it quickly.”

Mar 16, 2020

“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”

Mar 22, 2020

“We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself. We’re not going to let the cure be worse than the problem.”

Mar 23, 2020

“Easter is a very special day for me. And I see it sort of in that timeline that I’m thinking about. And I say, wouldn’t it be great to have all of the churches full?”

Mar 24, 2020

“The sacrifices we make over the next four weeks will have countless American lives saved. We’re going to save a lot of American lives.”

Apr 2, 2020

“This will be probably the toughest week, between this week and next week. And there’ll be a lot of death, unfortunately, but a lot less death than if this wasn’t done. But there will be death.”

Apr 4, 2020

“I’m going to put it very simply: The president of the United States has the authority to do what the president has the authority to do, which is very powerful. The president of the United States calls the shots.”

Apr 13, 2020

“We think some of the states can actually open up before the deadline of May 1. And I think that that will be a very exciting time indeed.”

Apr 15, 2020

“LIBERATE MICHIGAN!”

Apr 17, 2020

“Supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light…And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, either through the skin or some other way…And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute — one minute — and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning?” he asked. “Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that.”

Apr 24, 2020

Modeling – A Leap of Faith Amidst Uncertainty?

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In this pandemic, a lot has been said and written about models – their usefulness, their limitations, their inaccuracy and more. If nothing else, we have become familiar with epidemiological models – at least, the ‘curve’!!

The most famous model being used today is the COVID-19 Projections developed at the Institute for Health Metrics and Modeling at the University of Washington. Public health experts have disputed its forecasts, even claiming it is purely statistical and has not epidemiological basis. Other models have been developed at the Northeastern University, Los Alamos National Lab, MIT, Imperial College London, Columbia University. These models use different techniques and assumptions, leading to differing projections about the trajectory of the pandemic. Some of them have been consolidated at the University of Massachusetts Amherst – one can clearly see the varied projections.

Source: The New York Times

At the same time, these are being used by policymakers in making decisions and by others to criticize those very decisions because of the disparity in these models. For example, the New York State, these models predicted, would need much more ICU beds and ventilators than it has actually turned out to need. Does it mean that the models were wrong? Or has the social distancing policies guided by those models worked such that less of these medical equipment are needed?

We don’t know yet.

So, what is a model?

A model is, by design, a fragment of reality – developed to study specific features of it. It explains some specific aspects of the world, not the whole. It has assumptions built into it, that are reasonable in some contexts, not so in others.That is why we have many different models, even for the same narrow issue we try to understand. Features of the system that are important today maybe redundant tomorrow. What is crucial for some people may not be so for others.

Another reason we have so many models is there is a healthy disagreement among those who develop these models. So each model has its strengths and weaknesses.

The question then is, how should judge at a model?

An initial question to ask is: What is the model trying to explain? Looking for an answer to a question that is not the focus of the model defeats the purpose, doesn’t it?

A second step might be to see if the assumptions built into the model are reasonable for the question it is trying to answer. Does it explain the reasoning behind those assumptions? Are those assumptions intuitive? Do they align with what is already known about the world?

Next, we should look at the specification of the model itself. Given the question it is trying to address and the assumption it makes, are the elements of the model logically plausible? Does it explain the intuition behind each new step? Does the explanations it provides make sense intuitively to someone with some idea of the subject at hand?

Finally, does the model fit the data reasonably? To what extent? Does it address reasonably well, the limited question it was trying to address? Does it leave open possibilities to be tweaked to a different context? Can it be adapted as we get new data, wouldn’t that be fantastic?

So, what are we left with?

Hopefully, more understanding, both about the pandemic and the practice of modeling itself. We would be better off realizing that different models explain different things and hence, we should look at a multitude of them before we make up our mind.

Is uncertainty the only certainty? At least for now. In time, we will have a clearer picture. About this pandemic. Then, we will have a different uncertainty. Which is uncertain.