Notes from Indian Elections, 2019: Discussion at Center for Policy Research

On 27th May 2019, Center for Policy Research (New Delhi) hosted a discussion on the recently concluded General Elections of India, 2019 hosted by Yamini Aiyar. It is very insightful and presents many points that are missed out in the regular discourse. You can watch the video here:

Center for Policy Research

Here, I have made some notes from the discussion between panelists based on the points they make respectively.

Yogendra Yadav (soical activist, psephologist and politician)

  • Post the results, many of us seem to want to elect a new people
  • Do not conflate consequences with intentions of people – the distinction between the two is the space for politics

What Voter is saying

  • Care for this country – strength, pride – trust Modi more than anyone else to bring it about
  • Don’t like negativity about Modi
  • Don’t take my caste for granted
  • More frightened by coalitions than by Modi
  • Voting not for the self, but for the nation
  • More voting for ideological reasons

Intentions

  • Voting for PM
  • Anxiety about future of country
  • Resentment against minorities
  • Aspirations

Causes – beyond the voter’s control

  • Modi – cult + will to power + ambitions synchronized into one persons
  • Money
  • Media
  • Machine –

Consequences

  • Electoral authoritarianism, more concentration of power – decline of institutions
  • Non-theocratic majoritarianism
  • Public being mobilized to destroy the republic
  • Still lot of space for creative politics – understand intentions and respond

Space for politics

  • Recovery of nationalism – should not be surrendered
  • Religion – recover its inclusive language
  • Culture and language – speak to ordinary people in how they understand the world

Other comments:

  • the idea of NYAY (Congress manifesto point) reached only those who would pay for it, not those who would benefit from it,
  • manifesto was not about getting back power at all,
  • complete inability to respond to Pulwama,
  • no response to unemployment, demonization
  • Nationalism and Hindutva presented as the same thing to the voter
  • Foundation of BJP is the fraudulence of Indian secularism
  • Complete deracinated nature of Indian elite
  • What has India’s secularism done in response to 1992?
  • Nationalism may be a good thing – can be used against Modi
  • Beyond a point, media and propaganda can work against Modi
  • Respond positively to aspirations, not merely what is wrong with Modi

Vandita Mishra (journalist)

  • A hunger for power even after getting power
  • Telling multiple stories – Hindutva, rashtra (hit, pratishtha, suraksha), schemes (not necessarily get them but learnt through media), TINA
  • From citizen to beneficiary to voter – (came to entitlement, rather than empowerment)
  • Coming together of government and organization (RSS)
  • Reinforced narrative dominance

Other Comments:

  1. Modi makes both his supporters and his opponents intellectually lazy
  2. Distortions of social justice and secularism have to be corrected

Tariq Thachil (academic and political scientist)

  • BJP machinery built over a long period of time
  • Need to win large majorities without actually offering broad representations
  • Pure Modi, one man election (4M with Modi at the center)? Is that true?
  • Does it trump economic issues?
  • Motivated reasoning of voters? away from failures towards leaders
  • BJP or Modi attachment? Is BJP’s partisanship expressed as loyalty to Modi?
  • Perhaps Modi complements Money, Media and Machinery?
  • Is mobilization creating a leader effect or vice versa?
  • 2018 – 74% of all income of political parties, 98% of electoral bonds, 99.8% of it more than 10L – money helps mobilization, and projects winnability

Other Comments:

  • Lots of stuff happening at the same time
  • In some places, Muslims supporting BJP in large numbers

Shekhar Gupta (journalist)

  • Modi’s rise is a phenomenon, not a fraud on India
  • 2004 – BJP got 9 seats less than INC – TMC, TDP and others didnt want to go with BJP due to Gujarat but attributed to failure of India Shining – convenient explanation
  • 2009 – Credit given to Mrs. Gandhi – loan waiver, MNREGA – not to Manmohan Singh
  • Where poor are 30% – INC strike rate 68%, 70% are poor – INC strike rate around 30%
  • Growth was there but it went away
  • Congress and its durbar undermined UPA 2
  • 2019 – Modi got away with saying that nothing happened before 2014
  • Much happened – roads, airports, handling of GFC, Satyam handled much better than ILFS
  • Nobody from Congress said anything about UPA achievements but only about Indira and Sonia Gandhi
  • Manmohan Singh’s every speech went viral at all times – people remember him as a decent man who did something good
  • Responsibility of keeping India secular has been outsourced to 15% of its populations
  • Dalits are no longer with Mayawati anymore – miscoordiation of alliance
  • Most op-eds don’t go anywhere
  • People have been defeated despite money – Chandrababu Naidu
  • Voter in this country does not trust the Congress Schemes at all
  • JAM trinity works for a lot of people
  • Journalists and commentators either chose not to see or ignored the delivery of schemes without bribes
  • Biggest caste vote-bank in India – upper caste
  • Caste based parties leave a lot of OBCs behind – except Yadavs and Dalits
  • Congress’ lack of commitment, intellect and its arrogance
  • Chaikidaar Chor Hai – not taken well
  • Rahul Gandhi elite – video circulated by BJP
  • Modi is now elite but people see it that he has earned it
  • Congress does not understand India’s poverty anymore
  • The nature of poverty in India has changed – no longer like Indira’s time

G Sampath (journalist)

Sheer structural inequality of this election

  • financial,
  • human resources (premised on money),
  • media,
  • institutional (EC),
  • communication (premised on preceding 4)

Strategic patterns

  • late campaign start for INC,
  • no answer to BJP’s bogus nationalism – not even engaged with it, where was INC’s nationalism that let to India’s independence
  • presidential election without a candidate
  • no story offered by opposition – no narrative of leader, performance

Are we becoming a managed democracy?

Other Comments:

  • Difference between how Modi approaches Hindutva (instrumental, not ideological) and how RSS deploys it (ideological)
  • Modi may have done a lot of damage to BJP as an organization and its workings
  • After Modi – If not Modi, who?

Questions and Answers Session

Center for Policy Research

Institutions: Independent Decay or Decaying Independence?

In the present decade, we have seen an unprecedented amount of writing on the decay of institutions worldwide – whether it is the media or the courts or the legislatures. – from New Delhi to the Washington, from Brussels to Westminster. Commentators and critics lament the hollowing out of institutions that had been presumed to be bedrocks of constitutional democracy especially after World War II. The inability of these structures to stem the tide of illiberal, personalized, cult-based governments has evinced some surprise, even introspection, in the promoters of liberal democracy.

Newspaper columns, essays, editorials and even some books are filled with historical analysis of institutions – their origins, their structures, their functions and their present decay. Most of this is quite convincing and seemingly accurate. But they only present a part of the story. A lot of commentary presumes institutions as stand-alone setups that function above the dynamic of everyday politics. For example, the Election Commission of India was assumed to be an ‘apolitical’ for long time. Now, the liberal intelligentsia in India find that adjective to be false.

Similarly, prominent commentators have time and time again cast the personal shortcomings of some institutional leaders as exceptions. For example, the former Chief Justice of India Deepak Mishra was seen as an aberration who would be repaired over by his successor, Justice Ranjan Gogoi. Many editorials who praised him while he was CJI in waiting now have much to complain about him. Moreover, suddenly the Supreme Court of India looks like a palace of intrigue.

On the other hand, the former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan was a darling of the liberals as much for his policy decisions as his comments on socio-political issues. RBI, it seemed during his tenure, could do no wrong. His successor Urjit Patel, who was initially seen as a timid bureaucrat, suddenly found himself being praised for standing upto the incumbent government. His successor Shaktikanta Das has had no such turn in fortune.

It would seem from these example and those from around the world that the persons leading the institutions are just as important as the artifice of the institutions themselves. That is certainly true. However, the political dynamics and ideological contests that surround institutions are just as important, and often ignored by commentators. Do institutions matter? Yes, they do. But people that lead them and their ideas matter just as much.

Take the example of the ECI. The lament of its ‘decay’ from a strong force of impartiality to its shortcomings in the present sometimes conveniently forgets the political struggle that created its strength – under the leadership of T. N. Sheshan, the support of Supreme Court and popular belief in ECI’s newly acquired powers to ensure free and fair elections. It did not stop there, there was a change in the lexicon of Indian electoral democracy – Model Code of Conduct, which had to be adhered to no matter what. What we have failed to appreciate while this became the norm is that it was not an event, but a dynamic process that brought us to a place where out expectations from ECI had changed – it was and continues to be a struggle to keep the elections free and fair. ECI does not exist outside the realm of everyday politics. Its officers are not objective robots but subjective bureaucrats. It is not an independent, autonomous body but an inter-dependent, constrained institution that depends as much on the courts and popular support as it does on the some of the very people it is supposed to keep in check – the powerful leaders in government.

Similarly, the Supreme Court of India is a case in point. It would appear from commentary that the SC has suddenly taken a turn towards decay. Presumably, it was a fine institution earlier. What this ignores is that the roots of today’s decay lie precisely in the fineness of the court in the preceding period. This was underlined by an unprecedented power-grab by the court – to appoint its own members, justified by the inability of Indian politicians to be sensible and popular resentment against them. While the ‘collegium’ temporarily solved some problems, it created a facade of independent judiciary without oversight by the people’s representatives. Today, the same independence that was applauded and institutionalized has created a situation where a sitting judge can be a judge in his own case without the slightest bit of irony. Not just that, it has created a situation where the political executive can exploit these gaps and shortcomings to its advantage while preaching the rhetoric of judicial independence when suitable.

The example of RBI is even more baffling. While a major headliner in the limited reaches of the financial press, the RBI Governor wasn’t a figure of media commentary until Raghuram Rajan became the Governor. And suddenly the person holding the post has become a thing of daily news. However, the previous ignorance and the recent stardom of the RBI fails to capture the institution of India’s central bank in its entirety. While 1991 liberalization is seen as a major step in opening India to global trade, its role in changing RBI’s functions is only mentioned in passing. Moreover, the changed financial market landscape in which RBI functions today means that its institutional dynamic with the government with the central governments is vastly different from what it was two or three decades ago. At the same time, the ideological bent of Indian economists and financial commentators has changed – the institutional expectation from RBI is therefore not the same. At the same time, the role of political executive has been made more prominent via the monetary policy committee (MPC) – away from the singular role of the Governor in monetary policy. But that is not all that RBI does. In a globalized and digitized financial landscape, there is a struggle between government and the RBI for jurisdiction over emerging arenas. This makes the RBI board and the RBI Act important structures – both of which remained outside common public discourse until recently.

These examples should suggest that institutions are neither autonomous nor independent. Neither should we want them to be. They are dependent – on their leaders, on other institutions, on people, on ideas, on precedents, on political dynamics and on many other things. To narrow them down to just their leaders or just their independence is both disingenuous and naive. They reflect a tenuous social contract that emerges after every small struggle for power and for ideas – one that happens at all times and that is shaped by a variety of potent forces that make the adjectives ‘autonomous’ and ‘independent’ seem childish and hollow.